세계경제 트렌드와 MARKET CRASH 2015

Aug 4, 2014

WSI-닉의경제보고서(2014.7.30): 닉의 주식추천- 또 다른 오바마의 실수로부터의 수익, 푸틴과 러시아에 불리한 시점.






<이메일에 나타난 드로잉대디의 멘토의 조언>

친구여,

나는 다음 닉의 보고서에 나오는 타이밍에 대해서는 확신하지 않고 있다네. 자네는 아마도 기도해보고 하나님께서 인도하시는 대로 투자해야 할게야. 다시 한 번 말하지만, 이런 투자들에는 반드시 리스크캐피탈(위험부담자본)만을 사용해서 투자를 해야 하네.
축복하며,

자네의 멘토가


Dear friend,

I'm not sure about the timing on this one. You might pray about it and do as you feel led. Again, please only use true risk capital for such trades.
Blessings,

From your mentor






닉의 주식추천 2014년 7월 30일
또 다른 오바마의 실수로부터의 수익, 
푸틴과 러시아에 불리한 시점

Nick's Picks Stock Market July 30, 2014
Profit from another Obama fumble This time against Putin and Russia


* 닉의 투자 보고서가 무엇인가요? 궁금하시면 다음 설명을 참조하세요


좋아, 친구들, 우크라이나,EU 그리고 미국의 반 러시아 제제들에 대한 상황은 점점 심각해지고 있다네.

OK, folks, things are getting serious with the Ukraine and EU and US sanctions against Russia.

오바마는 그의 골프 코스에서 벗어날 수 있을 때에야 동유럽에서 무엇이 매우 잘못되고 있다고 알아채기 시작하고 있다네.
Obama, when he can tear himself away from the golf course, is starting to figure out something is very wrong in eastern Europe.

유럽인들도 그것은 마찬가지라네 -- 그들이 해변 레스토랑에서 가자쵸 스푸(유럽인이 가장 좋아하는 음식)를 홀짝거리는 것을 멈출 때, 그리고 그들의 이메일들을 체크하기 시작할 때 말이네.
Same with Europeans -- when they stop sipping gazpacho soup (a European favorite) from their seaside restaurants, and bother to check their emails.

MH16비행기로부터의 300명의 묘지는 전쟁터 한가운데에 정면으로 놓여있다네. 그것은 아직도 서방으로부터의 접근이 막혀 있다네.
The graveyard of 300 people from Flight MH16 lies smack dab in the middle of a war zone. It still is not accessible to western authorities.

그러는 동안, 러시아는 두대의 제트기를 더 쏘아 떨구었다네. 적어도 그것들이 군용 제트기인것에 대해 신께 감사하네. 인공위성 사진은 이를 깨끗하게 보여주고 있네:
In the meantime, Russia shot down two more jets. Thank God these at least were military. Satellite photography clearly shows:

a) 러시아는 더 많은 SAM들 (포면에서 공중으로 발사하는 미사일들)을 우크라이나 내부로 '분리주의자들'에게 보내고 있다네;
a) Russia is sending more SAMs (surface-to-air missiles) to the Ukrainian 'separatists' inside Ukraine;

b) 러시아인들은 그들 스스로 러시아 내부에서 무거운 발사장비를 사용하여 우크라이나로 미사일들을 발사했다네.
b) The Russians themselves launched missiles from Russia into Ukraine, using used heavy artillery equipment; and

c) 더 많은 이동식 로켓 발사대들이 러시아에서 우크라이나로 향하고 있다네. 그것들은 두 주 전, 말레이시아 민항 비행기를 명중시킨 것과 비슷하다네.
c) More portable rocket launchers are headed out of Russia for Ukraine. These are similar to the one that shot down the Malaysian Airlines passenger plane two weeks ago.


나토 조약을 위배하며, 오바마는 이사건에 대해 군사적 책임을 전혀 지지 않고 있다네. 대신, 그는 더 많은 러시아 은행들, 투자물들, 원유 회사들 그리고 새로운 무기 거래들에 대한 제제를 발표했다네.
In violation of the NATO treaty, Obama has taken zero military response to this. Instead, he announced more sanctions against Russian banks, investments, oil companies and NEW arms deals.

아주 짧은 기간 안에, 이 제제들은 러시아 경제가 고통받게 될 것임을 의미한다네. 그 보복으로, 나는 이전 우리가 말했듯이, 러시아가 곧 원유와 천연가스의 유럽 수출을 중지할 것이라 예상한다네.
In the very near term, these sanctions mean the Russian economy will suffer. In retaliation, I expect Russia to soon embargo oil & natural gas to Europe, as we reported previously.

러시아가 오랬동안 고통받지는 않을 것이네. 아시아와 중국은 러시아 원유와 가스를 구매하고자 더욱 갈망하고 있네. 그들은 이미 이를 위해 일조 달러의 계약을 체결했네.
Russia will not suffer long. Asia and China are more than willing to buy Russian oil and gas. They've already signed a trillion-dollar agreement to do exactly that.

하지만 짧은 기간동안, 나는 러시아의 주식 시장이 내년에는 힘든 시기를 겪을 것이라 예측한다네. 내가 추천하는 투자는 그 기회를 이용하게 해 줄 것이네.
But in the short term, I expect Russia's stock market to get hit hard in the next year. The trade I'm recommending lets you take advantage of that.

그것의 기호는 RUSS네. RUSS는 러시아 주식 시장의 세배의 레버리지를 가지고 있는 인버스 ETF네. 즉 러시아 주가가 떨어지면, RUSS 는 올라가네, 그리고 주가가 올라가면 그 반대현상이 벌어지네.
Its symbol is RUSS. RUSS is an inverse ETF, that gives you triple leverage on the Russian stock market. i.e. as Russian stocks go down, the RUSS goes up, and vice versa.

RUSS 는 지난해 26불에 거래되었네; 그리고 9.44불 이하로 떨어졌네. 최근 가격은 13.65불 이라네. 그리서 자네는 거의 중간쯤 가격에 구매할 수 있는 것이지.
RUSS has traded as high as $26 the past year; and as low as $9.44. Current price is $13.65. So you are getting in near midrange.

2011년에, RUSS 는 70불 이상에 거래 되었었네. 나는 다시 그 가격이나 그 이상으로 돌아 갈 것이라 예측한다네. 만약 그렇다면, 자네는 지금 가격으로부터 다섯 배 이상의 수익을 낼 수 있는 것이지. 아래 그래프를 보게:
In 2011, RUSS traded for over $70 a share. I expect it to easily go back to that price or more. If so, you could make over five times your money, from current prices. See the graph below:





이것은 놀라운 투자야. 아마 처음에는 평탄치 않을거야. 하지만 나는 일년 안에, 자네는 행복 그 이상의 결과를 낼 것이야.

This is a great trade. May be bumpy at first. But I think within a year, you will be more than happy with the results.

다시한번 자네에게 투자 뒤에 있는 논리를 알려주겠네: 단기적으로는, 이 새로운 제제는 러시아 경제를 강타할 것이네. 러시아는 미국과 유럽 투자가들로부터 중국/아시아 투자가들로 움직일 비-유럽/미국 권 은행 파트너들을 모으고, 원유와 가스를 아시아로 공급할 인프라를 구축할 시간이 필요할 것이네.
Again let me give you the logic behind the trade: in the short run, these new sanctions will hurt the Russian economy. Russia will need some time to line up its non-European/US banking partners; to move from US and European investors to Chinese/Asian; and to complete its infrastructure work to supply oil & gas to Asia.

물론 푸틴은 그것들 모두를 아니 더 많은 것을 할 것이네. 하지만 그러는 동안, 그것은 우리에게 수익을 낼 엄청난 기회를 줄 것이지.
Of course, Putin will do all that and more. But in the meantime, that means great opportunity for us to make money.

러시아는 다시 뒤로 물러서지 않을 것이야. 유럽인들은 러시아 군대와 교전을 하지 않을 것이지. 그들은 멍청하기 그지 없는 뒷구녕 같은 제제나 더 가하려고 할 것이야. 그들이 지금껏 해온 대로 말이지.
Russia is not going to back down. Europeans will not engage Russia militarily. They will turn to stupid-ass sanctions. Like they just did.

과연 어떤 제제 조치가 푸틴을 향해 훌륭하게 오줌을 싸 갈길 수 있을까. 그 제제는 그의 보복 조치를 심지어 더 심각하게 만들 것이네.
Which will only piss off Putin royally. It will make his retaliation even severe.

오바마와 유럽 리더들의 또 다른 바보같은 정치적 결정들이 있네. 하지만 그것들에 대해 걱정하지 말게. 그들의 어리석음에 투자해 보도록 하세나.
Another idiotic policy decision by Obama and Europe's leaders. But let's not worry about that. Let's cash in on their idiocy.


Nick

Market Watch(2014.8.3): 경고: 이번 주식의 하락은 단지 시작일 뿐이다

Warning: That plunge in stocks is just the beginning

Investors brace for the return of volatility







By Ben Eisen, MarketWatch 



NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — If the ups and downs of the past week have taught investors anything, it’s that there are cracks in this 5 1/2-year-old bull market.
The lesson for investors? Tread carefully.
Stocks took a tumble as a raft of economic data sparked fears the Federal Reserve could speed up its timetable for raising interest rates. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.29%   took its biggest weekly hit in more than two years, losing 2.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.42% , meanwhile, sliced through its 50-day moving average and erased the gains that had tenuously built up this year.
“It reminded people that the stock market can actually go down. It seems like a lot of people had forgotten,” said Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading.
This past week saw a number of economic indicators: a robust 4% expansion in second-quarter GDP suggested a resurgence in economic activity, while a jump in a highly-watched wage index was a sign that employee earnings, the holy grail of labor market growth, was finally picking up. Even Friday’s soft jobs report didn’t undo the worries about the Fed.

Bracing your portfolio

Indeed, investors should expect more volatility, not less, as the Fed moves closer to rate hikes, analysts say. The central bank is generally expected to begin raise its key lending rate in the middle of next year.
“Every time we see data really heat up, it will really spook investors and keep a cap on the equity market for the time being.” said O’Rourke.
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That’s not to say all market participants are calling for a steep drop. “We see the mid-cycle rally as having plenty of room to run before we get a 10%-plus correction,” said Binky Chadha, a particularly bullish strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a Friday report .
Read more on the debate: Jonathan Burton says ignore the bears and bank a 22% stock market gain while Mark Hulbert sees 3 market warning signs that predict 20% stock tumble.
Still, the trepidation in the market may leave it open to the kind of knee-jerk reaction seen on Thursday, when the Dow skidded 317 points for its biggest one-day loss since February.
“A very small impetus can have an exaggerated effect. That may be the kind of market we are in for the rest of the year,” said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Private Banking.
Given that murky outlook, strategists are advising caution. O’Rourke notes investors appear to be rotating out of riskier small-cap companies back toward stalwart large-cap stocks.
That’s represented in the relative performance of the Russell 2000 index RUT -0.46%  , which is more heavily weighted to companies with smaller stock-market capitalizations, versus the large-cap S&P 500. The Russell 2000 is down 4.2% on the year, while the S&P 500 is still up 4.2% during that time frame.
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Cash and cash-like investments are also growing in popularity, since that leaves investors able to act should volatility inspire new investing opportunities, according to Clemons, of Brown Brothers Harriman Private Banking.
“The option value of holding cash is a nice thing to have in an environment of higher volatility. We’re happy to use that cash if the market gives us that volatility,” he said.

The week ahead

In the coming week, investors will digest a series of economic news and more earnings reports that could add or subtract from market fear.
The Institute for Supply Management’s service sector data comes out on Tuesday, alongside numbers on factor orders. Trade deficit data, often look to for its signals about gross domestic product, arrives on Wednesday. And productivity numbers come on Friday. See the full economic calendar.
The week’s big earnings reports will be dominated by media companies, with results coming out from Walt Disney Co. DIS -0.58% , News Corp. NWSA +0.71% , Viacom IncVIAB -0.51% , CBS Corp. CBS +0.35%  and Time Warner Inc. TWX +0.94%  .
Other big reports come from Groupon Inc. GRPN -0.15% , SolarCity Corp. SCTY -2.40% , and Marathon Oil Corp. MRO -0.36%  .

원문: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/that-plunge-in-stocks-is-just-the-beginning-2014-08-03?pagenumber=1

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