세계경제 트렌드와 MARKET CRASH 2015

Jul 27, 2014

주식시장 붕괴... 경제 공황

Harry Dent+ , July 21, 2014

You can’t deny an economic collapse. We are about to see the greatest stock crash of our lifetimes

I recently read a good article in Barron’s by Randall W. Forsyth called “Deus ex Machina 2.0: Is the Fed Trying to Take Human Nature Out of the Credit Cycle?

It was particularly interesting in light of the Bank for International Settlements’ warning that central banks are stoking financial bubbles that will burst, creating an even larger financial crisis… and that they should reverse their endless stimulus policies sooner rather than later.

Music to my ears: Were they singing my song or what?!

Of course, central bankers like the Fed’s Yellen had to come out and counter this sober view; the same view I’m trying to share with you… of an insane world where there’s unlimited use of financial drugs to keep history’s greatest global debt and financial asset bubble going forever.

And it really is insane!

How could any intelligent economist argue, with a straight face, no less, that taking more and more financial drugs to keep the high going is fiscally responsible?

Yet that is exactly what Yellen did (and continues to do)!

She quoted Greenspan: “Because there’s no way to identify a bubble until it bursts, it’s better to clean up the damage when it does pop than to try to deflate it in advance.”

What B.S.!

This coming from the so-called “free-market capitalist” who stoked the technology and housing bubbles into the turn of the century. Every time the economy would slow, he increased the “crack” drug of easy monetary policy in the system, pushing interest rates lower and creating greater speculation.

At the end of June, Yellen stated that she hoped the Fed’s low-interest-rate policy would not create excess speculation.

Are you kidding me?!

You let traders lever up 30 to 50 times, with near zero, short-term money costs, and you hope there’ll be no speculation?! Do you think Wall Street is full of boy scouts?!
An Economic Collapse is Unavoidable

You mean that housing prices more than doubling in six years, with no appreciable increase in real incomes, and with mortgage lending advancing from 3.3 times pre-tax income to 9.2 times tax income, all stoked by record-low interest rates, was not identifiable as a bubble?!

Was an advance in the Nasdaq from 800 to 5,050 in just five years not a sign of a bubble?

How about the recent three-times advance in the S&P 500 in a totally artificially-stimulated economy that can only grow at 2% (on average), despite $2 trillion a year in fiscal and monetary stimulus?

Or how about China’s stock market going up 6.6 times in two years…

Or the Shanghai real estate market going up 6.63 times since early 2000?

These are not identifiable bubbles in the Fed’s eyes?!

Dow Heading for Historic Drop – Take Immediate Action

World-renowned economist Harry Dent now says, “We’ll see an historic drop to 6,000… and when the dust settles – it’ll plummet to 3,300. Along the way, we’ll see another real estate collapse, gold will sink to $750 an ounce and unemployment will skyrocket… It’s going to get ugly.”

Considering his near-perfect track record of predicting economic events long before they occur, you need to take action to protect yourself now. Get the full details…Click to Learn More

This apparent blindness sends a very clear message: The Fed’s real intention is to take over the free-market capitalist system and program the economy to grow at 3% a year with 1% to 2% inflation…

To annihilate the very dynamics of success and failure that created the greatest wealth in human history (a dynamic that is now spreading to emerging countries)…

And, of course, to never have recessions or downturns or bank failures ever again.

Oh, like that’s realistic!

These people know nothing about the free-market system and its dynamics for creating wealth.

In fact, it’s a horrible crime that these people are in charge.

These central bankers shouldn’t even be allowed to babysit our children, never mind control our economic policies!

Thankfully, I’m not alone in my views of the Fed’s incompetence and unspoken intentions. There’s also David Stockman, who is our keynote speaker at our Irrational Economics Summit this year.

He says it best in the subtitle of his 2013 book The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America.

And there’s Forsyth, who seems to be alone in his chosen profession, being one of those scarce purveyors of the truth in the financial media.

Unfortunately, no matter what anyone says, this endless stimulus and denial can’t last, and when it ends, the repercussions will be devastating.

In fact, I’m only getting more bearish as the stock market continues to edge up in the face of a 2.9% decline in GDP (in the first quarter), slowing earnings growth, and the Middle East turning into an outright Shia-Sunni religious war.

Beginning this year, we’ll see a sharp drop coming into early 2015 (I’m taking Dow 10,000 to 11,000)… then another slide into late 2016 or early 2017 (when the Dow will sink as low as 5,000 to 6,000)… and finally a third fall into early 2020 or so (with the Dow slamming into the 3,300 to 3,800 mark).

I know that the stock market looks invulnerable at this point. But that’s exactly when you should be the most afraid… and cautious. This is precisely how bubbles suck in even the skeptics before they burst.

And bubbles don’t correct. They burst violently. My article on the “10 Rules About Bubbles You’re Going to Want to Know” will explain the details. Remember the Nasdaq? It lost 40% in just the first crash in 2000 before it bottomed down 80% in late 2002.

Time to prepare.


원문: http://economyandmarkets.com/government/stock-market-crash-economic-collapse/

MarketWatch: 사고 기다리는 투자는 불가능할것


Chuck Jaffe
July 25, 2014, 11:36 a.m. EDT

Buy-and-hold investing is impossible

By Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch 
For years, there have been two principle adjectives used to describe the buy-and-hold investment style: Dead or alive.
The buy-and-hold style was, of course, labeled as dead during and after the financial crisis of 2008, when anyone who stayed with their investments saw their portfolios get cut in half.
The same style is purportedly now alive and well, as anyone who stuck it out after their losses — or jumped into the market after the turmoil — has seen a years-long rally that has recouped the losses and reached record highs.
Truthfully, the problem may be less with the style and more with the adjectives, because at least one leading money manager and behavioral finance expert now suggests that buy-and-hold is unrealistic and impossible.

Buy-and-hold isn't dead, but it's impossible

Chuck Jaffe has some advice for investors. Photo: Getty Images.
This week, Natixis Global Asset Management committed $1 million to a three-year research project by the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to help figure out how investors can bridge the emotional gap between a desire to generate superior investment returns and an aversion to taking risk.
In discussing the project, Andrew W. Lo, director of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering — and manager of the ASG Diversifying Strategies fund DSFAX -0.12% , a Natixis issue — noted that the research is designed to tackle the really tough part of investing, the one where you put your hand back in the fire after you’ve been burned.
Standard advice typically amounts to “the market will be up in the long run,” encouraging buy-and-hold for decades.
“That might sound like good advice because on paper when you take a look at the S&P over the last 10, 20 or 30 years the performance looks pretty good the longer you go,” Lo said during an appearance on “MoneyLife with Chuck Jaffe.” “The problem is that advice is just not realistic. You can’t expect an investor to live through 2008-2009 and be perfectly happy to see their investments decline by 50 percent.
“You literally would have lost half…nobody is going to be rational to the point of not taking that information and reacting to it,” he added. “We are all emotional in that context.”
As a dedicated long-term investor, I can argue that point empirically by looking at my own portfolio, which went through the financial crisis virtually unchanged, with just a few small moves on the fringes but with the primary investments remaining the same.
I can also think back to those rough market times, however, and remember the nausea as the core of my portfolio was being gutted.
That emotion, in hindsight, is precisely why pure buy-and-hold can be, for most people, unrealistic.
Whether it is making moves on the edge of a portfolio or hiring a money manager who adapts and tries to guide the portfolio, it’s basic human nature to want to avoid pain.
Lo compared it to a different human imperative.
“It’s not credible to say to an investor, ‘Here’s a stock index fund, you ought to just keep your money in it and don’t worry about it and leave it there for 10 or 20 years,’” he said. “That’s like telling a teenager he or she ought to abstain; it might be reasonable advice in the long run, but in the short run it’s very difficult to follow.”

Dow 17,000 is just another number

Chuck Jaffe thinks Dow 17,000 is just another number and attention on similar milestones draws attention away from larger issues.
No matter what strategy investors opt to follow — whether it is buy-and-hold or some rapid-trading, momentum-driven methodology — the necessary personal ingredient for success is emotional discipline, the ability to stick it out.
C. Thomas Howard, director of research at AthenaInvest and author of “Behavioral Portfolio Management,” told me recently that the biggest problem investors face comes in accepting an investment strategy and following it as it is; they pick a strategy that they understand and like, follow it easily during good times, but then have a tough time the moment they question a trade, a stock pick or the results in the market.
“You can’t invest like a great investor if you’re not investing just like that investor,” Howard said. “You start to think you know better, or that there’s just this one thing they are doing that you don’t like, and suddenly you are changing. Now you are not following a successful system, you are modifying one; that may work out for you, or it may not.”
Howard noted that by cherry-picking the parts of a methodology they like — but ignoring or changing moves they’re less comfortable with — investors typically give themselves the wrong scapegoat for when something goes wrong. Invariably, they blame the adviser, newsletter editor, investment service or guru for failing when it was their own moves that altered the strategy.
“There’s lots of ways to make money in the stock market, to be successful,” Howard said. “The key is that you have got to master your emotions, follow a narrowly defined strategy, and consistently take only high-conviction positions over time.”
Bring that back to the buy-and-hold strategy and recognize that the market is going to test your conviction. Ultimately, that’s what leads Lo to say that buy-and-hold forever can’t be done, even if most behavioral-finance guys say that it’s the strategy investors might benefit the most from.
That said, investors need to do some self-examination and perhaps give their portfolio several different approaches, one where the core of their holdings is something as simple as buy-and-hold, but where there is enough money being invested in other ways that it creates enough conviction to stay invested in good times and bad.
In the end, it may not be that buy-and-hold is dead, impossible or unrealistic so much as it’s that one piece of a puzzle for those investors who stomach it as one strategy in a multi-pronged attempt to come up with a portfolio they can live with in all market conditions; if you can’t live with buy-and-hold when it feels more like a fruitless duck-and-cover play — if you don’t think you can witness the carnage of 2008 all over again and remain invested — then you need to prepare for the days when the market again punishes buy-and-holders.
Knowing that now means you can protect against a downturn; finding out too late guarantees that your story will include the worst outcomes at the worst times. 

Chuck Jaffe is a senior MarketWatch columnist. His work appears in many U.S. newspapers. Follow him on Twitter @MKTWJaffe.

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