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Jul 5, 2014

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WSI Special Report
July 4, 2014 
Muslim Caliphate:

Radical Muslim fanatics just took a huge leap towards global jihad and world-wide Islam. And it ain't about making people independent. They also improved our already huge opportunity to make a killing on both sides of the global oil market...
A caliphate is an religious Islamic state, known as a theocracy, its leader a direct successor to the prophet Muhammad.
The last caliphate was the Ottoman Empire, which ended in 1924. At its height it was one of the world's most feared powers. It spanned three continents, held tens of millions of people as virtual slaves within its borders, and impacted events globally.
Since then Islamic radicals have dreamed of forming the next caliphate. They know it could unify 1.5 billion Muslims. It could be a decisive step in their Holy War to wipe out the infidels (i.e. us) and establish global Islam.
All failed to establish a caliphate -- till now.
Rebel Islamic leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi just declared the first caliphate in nearly a century. Unlike all earlier caliphates, this one is Sunni. That is crucial. Sunnis make up the vast majority of the world's nearly 2 billion Muslims.
If al-Baghdadi can consolidate his position as caliph (so far he's doing this brilliantly) he has just formed the world's largest 'nation-state.' It will have 1.5 billion people in it. It crosses all national borders: its 'citizens' will live in nearly every country the world over.
All its people are unified by a common religion: the most oppressive, bloodthirsty, fanatical on the planet. By accepting the caliphate, they acknowledge their responsibility -- their duty -- to wage jihad whenever and wherever their caliph al-Baghdadi orders it.
And al-Baghdadi has made it clear: he is not into religious tolerance or multiculturalism. He will accept only one outcome. World-wide Islam. No exceptions, not even in America. Actually, upon getting freed from a US prison in 2009 (yes, our military had him but let him go), he promised he would 'see us in New York' one day.
And now al-Baghdadi is the military/religious/political leader of the fastest growing terror group on the planet... that has declared its own nation-state... has billions in assets, millions in daily revenues... that has vowed world-wide jihad... and is picking up followers by the tens of thousands each day.
All this was possible for exactly one reason. Under Obama, America betrayed every ally it had in the Middle East. Including Egypt. Saudi Arabia. Jordan. Turkey. Israel. Kuwait. Syria. Iraq.
This unthinkable U.S. abandonment opened up a power vacuum, in what is currently the oil capital of the world. al-Baghdadi is filling that vacuum. He and his followers are the most radical Sunni crazies in all Islam. Even al-Qaeda considers them too dangerous to associate with.
The world does not comprehend the intensity or ferocity of al-Baghdadi and ISIS. These guys are homicidal maniacs. Drunk with power. Driven by their religion's command to turn the world into a Muslim 'utopia,' ruled by Sharia law.
Now even moderate Sunnis must deal with the disquieting fact: a major, radical Sunni state has been formed. Please don't kid yourself about the so-called moderates. They follow the lead of the radicals. They have no choice. To stand up to ISIS means death in the most grotesque ways. As just one example, see the horrifying photo on the right. (It was not staged.)
al-Baghdadi's new caliphate is already igniting Muslim radicals around the world. It will keep breathing life into bin Laden's dream, to turn all Islam into a fundamentalist theocracy.
bin Laden was never able to do that. He didn't gain any land of importance. Other Sunnis did not accept him as the Caliph. They did not view him as the direct successor of Muhammad.
al-Baghdadi already controls vast amounts of territory. Enough for an entire, large nation. His territory grows larger each week.
What's more, huge numbers of Sunnis accept him as caliph. Those numbers also grow, by the day. The huge rise of Sunni radicalization -- that bin Laden dreamed of and started -- now is spreading by leaps and bounds.
In declaring himself caliph, al-Baghdadi must know he has enough supporters to make it stick. Without the support of a large portion of radical Islam, he would have signed his own death sentence.
Instead, he is drawing in huge numbers of fervent, radicalized believers. Now they aren't merely fighting for an ideal. They are fighting directly in Muhammad's name: al-Baghdadi is Muhammad's direct successor.
al-Baghdadi's next step as caliph is to declare jihad. Muslim law is clear: his followers must join him in the fight.
This could be the most significant event in Islam of the past thousand years. It guarantees that al-Baghdadi is now able to recruit vastly more holy warriors. It means his power to conquer and occupy many more lands is just about guaranteed as well.
Why? In part because any nation that dares stand up to him automatically faces jihad. So leaders who engage Baghdadi must consider their position very carefully.
Say they oppose al-Baghdadi. The radical Sunni elements -- not just that accompany al-Baghdadi but all through Islam -- will rise up against them in jihad. They have to. It's their religious duty. Making it far easier for al-Baghdadi to overthrow any government that does not support him.
Look at the map on the right, of the Ottoman empire. It conquered southeastern Europe. Northern Africa. Turkey and much of the Middle East. Its influence was felt around the developed world.
Baghdadi has positioned himself to do the same. Except he could quickly add quite a bit more territory to his caliphate. Including Saudi Arabia, all of Libya, Algeria and the rest of the Muslim Middle East.
You may be witnessing history being made here. An empire may just have been born. I guarantee you, every imam in the world is talking about this. So are the members of every mosque. al-Baghdadi has staked his position according to their time-honored Islamic beliefs. Islam knows this and is watching with rapt attention.
Our modern world has not seen conquering hordes. We have not seen armies of religious fanatics, invading huge patches of land, raping, pillaging, plundering and conquering. Well, now we are. It's spreading by the day.
This is not conventional warfare. It is unlike WWII, Vietnam or even America's war in Iraq. Sadly, perhaps fatally, the western democracies are powerless to stop it.
They aren't even trying. You may notice, the UN has made no resolution condemning al-Baghdadi. No global intervention has risen up to oppose him.
World leaders aren't merely cautious about al-Baghdadi. They are clueless. They don't understand what's going on. They twiddle their thumbs, making speeches urging 'caution,' as one of the world's most important regions descends into chaos.
This religious war knows no borders. It has no rules. The real viciousness lies ahead of us: the Shiites will not just side quietly on the sidelines as ISIS takes their land and people.
They know al-Baghdadi threatens their very existence. They are already starting to strike back, with their own special brand of chaos and destruction. (Don't forget the Iranian Shiites are the only Muslims with nukes, and the ICBMs to deliver them.)
Absolutely, positively, the spreading war will disrupt the critical oil supply out of the Middle East. This alone will send oil prices soaring.
And that's not all. At the very same time, Russia's worst nightmare is coming true. Former Soviet states just signed trade pacts with a very desperate Europe. Pacts that, in time, could cut Russia entirely out of the European economy.
Putin cannot permit this. He considers those former Soviet states Russian property. He's already invaded the Ukraine and seized Crimea. His surrogates are on the ground in eastern Ukraine, sabotaging the government there, with the view of taking the entire nation. All the other former Soviet state are in his sights as well.
Ukraine is the Middle East of Europe. Just like the Middle East supplies energy to much of the world, Ukraine supplies energy to the EU. 70% of Europe's energy supply flows from Russia through there.
And Putin is a hop, skip and jump away from cutting all that energy off. He has threatened to do so... has made oil/gas deals with China that guarantee he doesn't lose a dime... and has a continent to gain by simply turning off a valve.
In short, two of the world's major energy choke points -- that supply much of the oil and gas that make our modern world possible -- are ripped apart by armed military conflict. Global oil supplies are about to take a major, sudden hit.
Because of the fracking miracle, the world can quickly adjust. But that will take at least 24 months. European and US leaders have dragged their feet on fracking. The greenies have put extreme political pressure on them. So have Russia and OPEC, which stand to lose everything once fracking takes off. Also, fracking goes against their liberal agenda of global warming and climate change.
That's why there has been virtually no oil exploration or fracking in Europe. America should already be energy self-sufficient -- a net exporter. We easily have enough oil and gas. But our progress has been slowed, often halted, due to the green agenda.
A global energy crisis will quickly change the equation. Vast oil supplies will come to market. The alternative is starvation and mass uprising. No modern government can allow that.
I've shown you many times before, how the world is sitting on an ocean of oil and natural gas. In the next several years, that energy will start flowing. Crude supplies will soar to all-time record highs. Oil and gas will be as common as dirt. Prices will fall back to their long-term historic level, of under $10 a barrel.
This makes our oil straddle trade -- where we profit from both moves, up and down -- all that much stronger.
Remember that America has the biggest oil reserves in the world. Over ten trillion barrels. Saudi Arabia, which is #2 in the world, has about 265 billion barrels.
i.e. we have at least 40x as much oil as the Saudis! (I say “at least” because we still haven't explored much of the fields fracking opens up. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is completely explored, with all its supplies known and counted.)
America invented fracking. We are the world's experts at it. It will put OPEC out of business.
Suppose Obama merely gave the go-ahead to projects that are shovel ready, with financing and engineering in place. In two years the US would be completely energy self-sufficient. We wouldn't need a drop of foreign oil. We would be a major oil exporter.
My friends, this can happen very quickly. It WILL happen very quickly. Necessity is the mother of invention. Oil shocks completely open up the energy market to fracking -- because it can bring crude to market now, and on the back of a world-wide oil embargo, now will be critically important.
Next key point: Any discussion of the Middle East without a discussion of Israel is incomplete. As luck would have it (bad luck for mankind) the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is now red hot.
Peace talks completely came apart when Hamas -- which both Europe and the US classify as a terrorist group -- united with the more moderate PLO (also known as Fatah). They formed something not seen before among the Palestinians: an alliance between two blood enemies. This is already igniting terror activities in Gaza (along Israel's southern border with Egypt)... and portions of the West Bank the Palestinians control.
Instead of breaking out champagne and toasting their new association, they did it the Palestinian way. In a carefully planned attack, Hamas kidnapped three unarmed Israeli teens hitchhiking from school. They tortured and killed the three youths, one of whom was also American, in the most gruesome ways.
Israel is in mourning. Hamas is defiant, warning the 'gates of hell' will be unleashed if Israel strikes back.
If you wonder why 3 kids matter: please recall World War I started when Austria's Duke Ferdinand was lured to Bosnia and assassinated. Before the war was over, 16 million people were dead; 20 million more were wounded; and the map of Europe was totally redrawn.
That assassination also changed the destiny of the Middle East. Borders of Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Israel were all drawn after WWI and the fall of the Ottoman Empire.
Islamists dream of redrawing the map again. This time the Sunnis want to establish borders that favor themselves, to reflect their 90% population superiority.
They will not redraw the map with ink. They will require copious amounts of blood. Bloodshed in the Middle East is nothing new. War constantly rages there. Most of the world usually ignores that.
This time is different: war is raging without any western forces present to keep things under control. America has pretty well abandoned the Middle East. That's why the new caliphate is spreading so fast and far.
The battle between Shiites and Sunnis is more intense than ever. It's only a matter of time before they start bombing each others oil fields and pipelines. This will drive oil to $250 a barrel.
America and other nations will eventually respond, by taking the choke collar off fracking exploration and production. That will quickly bring on the biggest oil boom ever.
It will replace all supplies lost from the Middle East. Within a few years, oil prices will collapse to under $10 a barrel. Gasoline will cost around $.25 a gallon. Prices will stay there for decades.
Putin knows all this. He understands the party of high oil prices cannot last forever. That is why he signed the world's biggest oil deal, with China. It's why the world's longest high-capacity pipeline is already leaving the engineers' drafting table, ready to move into construction.
Vast amounts of oil are about to change direction... and others halted. In the Middle East, oil flows are months away from cutting in half. In Europe, the oil flow out of Russia will be diverted to China.
This coming winter, 2015, millions of people in Europe could freeze to death. They will need to burn their furniture to heat their houses.
Millions more in the Middle East will die in the Civil War there that keeps spiraling out of control.
Any one of these events, by themselves, could spell total disaster. We are about to see them take place simultaneously. That's the story you must grasp.
Open your eyes. Look at what's occurring. The stars are aligning for the biggest oil crisis in modern history.
Half of the currently exportable oil in the world is now up for grabs. Within a year it will be cut off or embargoed. Ironically, because of fracking (that the greenies are fighting tooth and nail), America will soon have all the oil and gas it could ever want.
Within 24-to-36 months, $250 oil will give us $10 oil. Talk about the greatest oil rush ever seen. Oil millionaires will replace high-tech millionaires as the newest group of guys buying Ferraris, yachts and $100 million mansions.
Let me describe the three phases of what's coming in the oil market.
Phase one. War finally tears apart the Middle East. Radical elements throughout the Sunni world rise up to al-Baghdadi's call for jihad. Shiites strike back, in a life-and-death struggle for control of Islam.
As war rages across the region, the vital flow of oil quickly gets cut. Iran attacking Israel with nukes (or vice versa) is damn near a guaranteed event.
Phase two. Each side of the Middle East conflict destroys much of the others vital oil supplies, that pay for the game. Russia finishes its conquest of the Ukraine. Next winter, 2015, it cuts 75% of the power to Europe, throwing the continent into chaos. Russia escapes global condemnation, by blaming terrorists for cutting the vital energy supplies.
Oil prices soar to $250 a barrel. Gasoline in the US costs over $10 a gallon.
Phase three. Obama, who has sat on the sidelines as the world falls apart around him, can delay no longer. To prevent mass riots, he takes out his emergency executive order notepad, and starts writing executive order after executive order. He approves every pipeline. Every oil exploration project. Every fracking permit under the sun.
Same thing takes place in countries around the world. The trillions of barrels of oil that are just sitting there for the taking, finally start come to market in significant, ever-increasing amounts. Crude prices plunge. Just like they have the four other times oil has soared in price since 1970.
Conclusion: the perfect (oil) storm is forming. Never have events conspired so perfectly to make money from an oil crisis.
Until recently, the world's sleepy masses knew nothing about what was happening in the next village, never mind across the sea. That has changed. Today everyone is wired. Even the poor. They get on the internet before they get indoor plumbing.
People know it's a big world out there. They see modern realities, live in real time, on their cellphones.
These people want a piece of the pie. So it's easy for their leaders to agitate them. Even easier to convince people with nothing to lose to rise up against the ones they are told oppress them.
Islam has close to 2 billion followers. They include many of the world's poorest people. Convincing them to rise up against the Great Satan -- America -- is a very easy sell.
The Islamic leadership, including the ones we call terrorists, are not stupid people. They are highly educated. They know how to manipulate their people.
More important they understand fracking and what it means. They know this is their last chance to play the oil card. It's now or never. Putin knows that as well.
Now what does this mean for you? Pretty simple. The oil depression is upon us. We've seen oil go from $30 a barrel to $110. Yet there is no inflation, much less hyperinflation. Gold has DROPPED in price -- from $1900 an ounce to $1300.
Yes, energy prices have more than tripled. But that has not lit off inflation. There won't be inflation in the foreseeable future either. It's dead and buried.
Here's what the soaring energy prices have done: they've made people a lot poorer. These soaring oil prices are a key reason the global economy has not recovered. They are partly why the greatest stimulus program in history failed so miserably.
This next round of oil price increases will make US GDP turn massively negative. According to both the IMF and the New York Times, every $10 increase in the price of oil knocks 0.5% off US GDP. (Google this if you have any doubts about that.)
1st quarter U.S. GDP came in at negative -2.9%. (Though it took the Obama administration two revisions to finally admit this sobering fact. In the first report, that is most watched, they claimed GDP was UP 0.1%!)
Say oil soars to $250 a barrel, as we expect. That should knock another 7.5 percentage points off GDP.
i.e. GDP should plunge another -10.5%.
Now say you believe GDP would be 1% this year, without the rise in oil prices. I think that's as likely as the Tooth Fairy, but just suppose.
$250 oil takes GDP down to -6.5%.
Either way is a massive depression. In fact, it will be the worst depression America ever faced.
It will also be a depression you can get rich in. It's not even hard to do. You simply position yourself for the greatest run up in oil prices the world has seen... and then position yourself for the greatest run DOWN in oil prices the world has seen.
And that's exactly what our straddle trade does.
PS: In six months we expect US oil production to hit 10 million barrels a day, rivaling Russia and SA for the top spot in the world.
PPS: to show you the sorry US response to these game-changing events, on July 1 Obama announced he is sending 200 troops to Iraq to bolster US security at the embassy and airports. That makes his total deployment of troops in Iraq just 475.

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